Kingston-area housing starts likely to dip this year, analyst predicts

Interesting stats and comments here (though not sure about 'harsher weather' this January, confusing weather perhaps?!). 2008 should be a good year for the condo market as the Royal George nears completion, Admirals Walk begins construction, and it looks like Caraco will have a new high-rise in the West End.

From today's Whig-Standard:

The number of new houses being built in the Kingston area is expected to decline this year, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's analyst for Kingston said yesterday.
Housing data released by the CMHC yesterday shows housing starts skyrocketed in the fourth quarter of 2007, reversing a four-year downward trend. But CMHC market analyst Abdul Kargbo said he doesn't think the growth will last.
"For 2008, we're expecting a downward trend in total starts and single-housing starts are actually going to go down," Kargbo said.
From October to December, construction began on 240 new houses in the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area, 100 more than the same period in 2006. The Census Metropolitan Area includes Kingston, Frontenac Islands, Loyalist Township and South Frontenac.
Kargbo attributed the spike to predictions of a long, harsh winter. Instead of waiting until spring to start putting up new homes, local builders took advantage of milder temperatures to lay foundations in November, he said.
"People are expecting harsher weather [in] January through the rest of the winter, so I strongly believe, as a result of it, the builders decided to lay as many foundations as possible," he said.
While November's housing starts spiked at 129, December's were historically normal at 83.
"It was the highest since May of 1989 ... [when] we had 130 starts," Kargbo said of November's data.
While the number of new houses built has been falling over the last four years, the number of existing houses sold is rising.
Kargbo said that's because prices of new homes have been extremely high since 2005 and people are seeing better value in previously owned homes. Meanwhile, no apartment buildings were completed in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Kargbo said developers may have decided they built enough units in 2006 and 2007 for the short term.
n total, construction began on 280 apartment units in 2007, 207 fewer than 2006.
Kargbo said that decline represents a more typical level of activity.